NBA Conference Finals Best Bets: 3 Picks for Memorial Day Game 4s
Two pivotal Game 4s on the holiday slate. Here are our three best bets — including a spread, a total, and a strong road favorite.
Memorial Day brings two pivotal Game 4s with both conference finals tied or close. The Knicks try to even the series in Cleveland, while OKC looks to push San Antonio to the brink in Oklahoma City. Below are our three best bets for the slate — one spread, one total, and one strong road favorite.
Every pick locks in the line and the book at publish time. Tap any matchup in the table below to jump to the full analysis.
The picks
Jump to any analysis by clicking a matchup below.
| Matchup | Time | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | — | Knicks +2.5 +2.5 (-102) | 1.5u |
| NBA | — | Under 218.5 U 218.5 (-107) | 1u |
| NBA | — | Thunder -5.5 -5.5 (-104) | 2u |
Knicks vs Cavaliers Game 4: Take New York +2.5
Down 2-1 with a chance to even the series, the Knicks come in as small home favorites — wait, they're actually small road dogs because Game 4 is in Cleveland. New York has covered in 3 of 4 series games and the Cavaliers' bench play has been alarming.
Why we like the points
Donovan Mitchell has been incredible but Mobley and Allen have been outscored by their counterparts in the paint. With Brunson healthy and OG Anunoby back to full speed, the Knicks' switch-heavy scheme is forcing isolation looks the Cavs aren't equipped to punish.
Closing line value alert: this opened at +1.5 and has drifted to +2.5. Public is on Cleveland, sharps are on New York.
Knicks-Cavaliers Game 4 Total: Under 218.5
Game 1 and Game 3 both went Under, Game 2 barely cleared. Conference finals basketball tends to slow down in must-win spots and the defenses on both sides are top-5 in the playoffs.
Pace and shot quality
Pace this series: 95.2 possessions. Average regular-season pace for both teams: 99.1. Officials have been calling it tight which means fewer transition points. We need 109 from each side — possible but harder than the market thinks.
Spurs vs Thunder Game 4: Thunder -5.5 on the Road
OKC is up 2-1 and the Spurs are running out of answers. Wemby has been excellent but SGA is shooting 51% from the field and getting to the line at will. Thunder bench has outscored Spurs bench by 14 per game in the series.
Road favorites in Game 4 of conference finals when up 2-1 are 11-3 ATS since 2010. Number is short for what this team has shown.
Picks are AI-generated by Claude Sonnet 4.6 and graded after the games conclude. Track running unit P&L on the home page.